Covid-19 impact on world economies

 Inflation now tops the list of perceived economic risks in respondents' home countries, and geopolitical conflicts remain the biggest threat to the global economy, a new survey shows.

After only a quarter of geopolitical conflicts and instability overcame the COVID-19 pandemic as the biggest threat to economic growth, survey respondents' concern over inflation now weighed on their countries' economies geographically. They are more than concerned about the impact of political issues.

They are now about half as likely as in the previous survey to rate geopolitical issues as a threat to their countries' economies. However, geopolitical conflict and instability remain a major concern in Europe, where 50 percent list it among their biggest threats. But even in Europe, inflation is an oft-cited threat—as it is in every geography except Greater China. There, respondents often point to the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Overall, pessimism about the second half of 2022 is on par with the early months of the pandemic in 2020, when more than half of respondents predicted global economic conditions would worsen in the coming months. 

In the latest survey, half of all respondents expect global conditions to worsen over the next six months, and 29 percent expect to improve. Respondents' expectations for their home countries are slightly more optimistic than their view of the global economy: 39 percent expect their economies to improve in the near future. However, this is the first survey since September 2020 that Less than half of respondents expect their household economies to improve.

Most respondents in Asia Pacific and Greater China anticipate their economies to beautify withinside the second 1/2 of of of 2022, aleven though not unusualplace optimism has declined for the purpose that the previous survey. Over the same period, respondents in Europe and North America have emerge as more pessimistic approximately the future.

At the same time, overall economic sentiment is more positive than negative but the downward trend continues. For the third quarter in a row, respondents are less likely to believe that economic conditions, global or domestic, will improve in the coming months — and the global outlook is particularly gloomy. Forty-three percent of respondents believe the global economy will improve over the next six months, compared to about 40 percent who feel things will get worse. This month's result also marks the first time since July 2020 that less than a majority of respondents are optimistic about the prospects for the global economy.

The majority of respondents (57 percent) expect both the global economy and their countries' economies to improve over the next six months, although this proportion has declined since the summer.

The shares of respondents predicting global and domestic economic improvement are roughly the same size as those who expected improvement in the December 2020 survey.

Respondents in India, Greater China, and Asia Pacific are the most optimistic: more than three-quarters in each of them predict improvement in their countries. In Latin America, only 26 percent say the same.

In a shift from the October survey, respondents again cited the COVID-19 pandemic as a threat to domestic growth more than any other factor, as has been the case in every other survey since early 2020.

In October, supply chain challenges briefly replaced the pandemic as the top threat, before the Omicron variant came out.

The latest survey also asked executives to choose among nine possible scenarios for the economic and health impacts of the pandemic, both globally and in respondents' countries. Compared to the October survey, a greater proportion chose global and domestic scenarios with a recurrence of the COVID-19 virus than scenarios with effective control of the spread of the virus.